Sunday, May 9, 2010

FL Sen Poll: Crist +6 - Revised July 8th, Rubio Up 2 Points

This is from a May 6th article that is not current. I have been getting a lot of hits on this and wanted to clarify. For the most current Rasmussen poll showing Rubio up 2 points over Crist go here.

It looks more and more likely that Crist will end up as a spoiler in the Fla. Senate race. Tea Party people must get out the vote for Rubio.

A new Mason Dixon poll conducted in Florida (625 LVs, 5/3-10, MoE +/- 4%) shows Gov. Charlie Crist leading a three-way race for Senate, with Marco Rubio just behind and Rep. Kendrick Meek a distant third.

General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 38
Rubio (R) 32
Meek (D) 19

The pollster suspects, however, that Crist's lead is very soft, and that Meek stands to make up serious ground as he improves name recognition and as Democrats come home. Per the Miami Herald:

More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill. Against the lesser-known Miami congressman, who is black, Crist is favored by 19 percent of black voters and 48 percent of Democrats, according to the survey. Meek wins support from 68 percent of black voters and 36 percent of Democrats.

"It is very questionable whether or not these party and race numbers can hold up over the next six months unless the national Democratic Party and its leaders (including President Barack Obama) throw Meek under the bus,'' said Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker. "His strength among Democrats is likely a result of the fact that Meek is not known to 40 percent of state voters.''

Meek, of course, still has a primary on his hand. Jeff Greene, a wealthy real estate developer, just entered the race in the past week.

RCP currently classifies the race as a Toss Up.

FL Sen Poll: Crist +6

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