Monday, August 9, 2010

Gallup: Average loss of seats for midterms is 36

Just the average would not wrest control of the House from the Democrats. We need a "tsunami", and heres hoping we will get it in November.

Assuming that Barack Obama retains his current Gallup approval rate of 45%, what kind of losses can Democrats expect in November? Bill Clinton lost 53 seats in the House with a 46% rating in 1994, and LBJ lost 47 seats with a 44% rating in 1966. Anything above 39 seats gives control of the House back to the Republicans.

Carter’s limited loss was an anomaly anyway. It followed on the heels of Watergate, when voters were still angry enough at Republicans for Richard Nixon that any large-scale gains were out of the question. That’s why Gerald Ford lost 47 seats despite having a 54% approval rating three months after becoming President in 1974.

This year seems different from most of those mentioned, for one big reason: the economy. In 1994, Bill Clinton lost big because of his nanny-state overreach, and that was when the economy was actually adding jobs and growing steadily. This year, not only has Obama spent the entire year attempting to expand government to unprecedented levels, he’s also spent the economy into stagnation at the same time. Carter had Watergate to protect him, but Obama has nothing except the tiresome demonization of George W. Bush.
Read Hot Air article here.

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